Originally Posted by
tastywaves
If you make the overall objective of winning a championship and then do a quick study on the role of the QB by using current history as a marker, a quick study of the teams that have won the SB in the last 20 years shows the following facts:
1) Over the past 20 years, only two teams have won without a prolific QB that played a major role in their team's success. (Bucs w/ Brad Johnson and Ravens w/ Trent Dilfer)
2) Only 6 current QB's have led a franchise to an NFL championship (Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Eli, Brady and Roethliserger). The other 26 franchises have unproven QB's running their teams.
3) 5 of those 6 QB's were chosen in the top 33 picks of the draft. Only Brady slipped further, going in the 6th round. Two were #1 overall (Mannings), Big Ben was #11 overall, Rodgers #24 and Brees #33.
4) The average years in the league before getting a championship for those 6 QB's was just under 5 years. Brady and Big Ben had the quickest success doing it in their 2nd year in the league.
5) All but one of those 6 QB's won with the team that drafted them. Brees is the exception being traded from San Diego.
6) Current odds on favorite for this year's SB winner are teams led by Brady and Peyton Manning. All but Brees are still in the mix.
7) Only one of those 6 QB's sat on the bench for extended time before getting put into the starter role (Rodgers). He happened to be behind a HOF'er. Brady and Big Ben became starters early in their careers due to injuries by QB's ahead of them on the roster. Brees earned the starting position in his second year.
Assumptions from above:
1) You need a QB that can lead a team to victory and not just be a game manager. Only a few QB's have proven that they can elevate their play when needed. Only 6 current QB's are proven winners in the NFL.
2) The draft is the most likely place to find a guy that will lead you to a championship.
3) It is possible to get early results if you put the QB in the right situation, but most take a few years to develop. Only Eli and Brees took an extended amount of starts before realizing their potential, the others saw success pretty early once installed as starters.
4) At least 25 teams after this year will be trying to find a QB that can lead them to a championship.
5) Those 6 guys have come over a 12 year period of drafts, where many of the guys selected before them have not worked out.
I believe the Vikings made the right choice by drafting Ponder and committing to him. It is fairly apparent to me at this point that he is not going to work out. Odds of him working out were probably pretty low from the start, but if you see something in a guy, you need to take that chance. The importance of the position is very high and the choices in FA are usually long shots and expensive. Scouting teams and systems for success are essential, but you pay the guys to do their job and you have to trust them or get rid of them.
I don't pretend to be a talent scout and can only listen to the talking heads blather like the rest of you. But, if there is a guy available, most likely in the first round, that you think has a chance of being that guy I think you need to take the chance again. Waiting for the next Andrew Luck could be a decade of futility. GB didn't bring in Aaron Rodgers knowing he was the next great thing, they just thought his value at the #24 pick was worth the price, even when they had a perennial pro bowler leading their team.
I don't know where the likes of Barkely or Geno Smith will end up grading out when it's all said and done. Personally I have my doubts on both of them, but if one is available without having to reach too much, I would not be surprised if the Vikings don't pull the trigger and get one of these guys on the roster. The price of giving up the #1 pick on what would most likely be a starting position player is just part of the game that I think you need to play until you land a guy you believe in.
Let them duke it out in TC to see who should start the season.