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  1. #21
    NodakPaul's Avatar
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "i_bleed_purple" wrote:
    "Zeus" wrote:
    "snowinapril" wrote:
    They have 8 Conf games to play and we only have 7.
    They have more opps to lose.

    We could use some help from New England and hate to say it, Dallas!
    ATL in ATL is another possibility.
    My projections:

    Saints:
    Win
    9 Sun, Nov 8 Carolina 4:05 PM FOX
    Win
    10 Sun, Nov 15 @ St. Louis 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX
    Loss
    12 Mon, Nov 30 New England 8:30 PM ESPN
    Win
    13 Sun, Dec 6 @ Washington 1:00 PM FOX
    Loss
    14 Sun, Dec 13 @ Atlanta 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    15 Sat, Dec 19 Dallas 8:20 PM NFLN
    Win
    16 Sun, Dec 27 Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    17 Sun, Jan 3 @ Carolina

    So that's 14-2 with a 7-1 Conference record.

    Vikings:

    9 BYE WEEK
    Win
    10 Sun, Nov 15 Detroit 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    11 Sun, Nov 22 Seattle 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    12 Sun, Nov 29 Chicago 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    13 Sun, Dec 6 @ Arizona 4:15 PM FOX
    Win
    14 Sun, Dec 13 Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS
    Win
    15 Sun, Dec 20 @ Carolina 8:20 PM NBC
    Loss 16 Mon, Dec 28 @ Chicago 8:30 PM ESPN
    Win
    17 Sun, Jan 3 NY Giants 1:00 PM FOX

    Also 14-2 with a 7-1 Conference record.

    Here are the tie-breakers:
    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

    DETERMINING HOME-FIELD PRIORITY
    To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
    TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
    If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

    If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
    If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
    Two Clubs
    Head-to-head, if applicable.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
    Strength of victory.
    Strength of schedule.
    Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best net points in conference games.
    Best net points in all games.
    Best net touchdowns in all games.
    Coin toss.
    Head-to-head, not applicable.
    Conference records (in my scenario), tied.
    Common games (in my scenario), tied - both would be 5-0.
    Strength of victory.
    I'm assuming that means point differential in victories.
    Currently, NO leads that category 119 to 80.

    So the Vikings need to win some blowouts.
    I think that starts next week with Detroit.

    =Z=
    doesn't strength of victory mean the winning percentage of teams we beat?
    As opposed to net points, which is a later tiebreaker.
    Currently I think we win the strength of victory, we've beat some alright teams, and the Saints schedule is awful.
    I'm not certain though who has the lead.
    You are correct.
    http://football.about.com/cs/footbal...rengthofvi.htm
    Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
    However, as of right now, the opponents we have beaten have a winning percentage of 31% (14-31).
    The Saints' opponents have a winning percentage of 47% (25-28).
    So they currently have us beaten on strength of victory, but that can change a LOT in the last 9 weeks.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  2. #22
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "i_bleed_purple" wrote:
    "Zeus" wrote:
    "snowinapril" wrote:
    They have 8 Conf games to play and we only have 7.
    They have more opps to lose.

    We could use some help from New England and hate to say it, Dallas!
    ATL in ATL is another possibility.
    My projections:

    Saints:
    Win
    9 Sun, Nov 8 Carolina 4:05 PM FOX
    Win
    10 Sun, Nov 15 @ St. Louis 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX
    Loss
    12 Mon, Nov 30 New England 8:30 PM ESPN
    Win
    13 Sun, Dec 6 @ Washington 1:00 PM FOX
    Loss
    14 Sun, Dec 13 @ Atlanta 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    15 Sat, Dec 19 Dallas 8:20 PM NFLN
    Win
    16 Sun, Dec 27 Tampa Bay 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    17 Sun, Jan 3 @ Carolina

    So that's 14-2 with a 7-1 Conference record.

    Vikings:

    9 BYE WEEK
    Win
    10 Sun, Nov 15 Detroit 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    11 Sun, Nov 22 Seattle 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    12 Sun, Nov 29 Chicago 1:00 PM FOX
    Win
    13 Sun, Dec 6 @ Arizona 4:15 PM FOX
    Win
    14 Sun, Dec 13 Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS
    Win
    15 Sun, Dec 20 @ Carolina 8:20 PM NBC
    Loss 16 Mon, Dec 28 @ Chicago 8:30 PM ESPN
    Win
    17 Sun, Jan 3 NY Giants 1:00 PM FOX

    Also 14-2 with a 7-1 Conference record.

    Here are the tie-breakers:
    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

    DETERMINING HOME-FIELD PRIORITY
    To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
    TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
    If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

    If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
    If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
    Two Clubs
    Head-to-head, if applicable.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
    Strength of victory.
    Strength of schedule.
    Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best net points in conference games.
    Best net points in all games.
    Best net touchdowns in all games.
    Coin toss.
    Head-to-head, not applicable.
    Conference records (in my scenario), tied.
    Common games (in my scenario), tied - both would be 5-0.
    Strength of victory.
    I'm assuming that means point differential in victories.
    Currently, NO leads that category 119 to 80.

    So the Vikings need to win some blowouts.
    I think that starts next week with Detroit.

    =Z=
    doesn't strength of victory mean the winning percentage of teams we beat?
    As opposed to net points, which is a later tiebreaker.
    Currently I think we win the strength of victory, we've beat some alright teams, and the Saints schedule is awful.
    I'm not certain though who has the lead.
    You are correct.
    http://football.about.com/cs/footbal...rengthofvi.htm
    Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
    However, as of right now, the opponents we have beaten have a winning percentage of 31% (14-31).
    The Saints' opponents have a winning percentage of 47% (25-28).
    So they currently have us beaten on strength of victory, but that can change a LOT in the last 9 weeks.
    thanks for the stats.
    In the next few weeks it will even out though.
    Their upcoming schedule is extremely easy.
    Although we do play the whole NFCW, so maybe not.

  3. #23
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    While I agree that we should really chase the homefield advantage in the playoffs, this years team seems to be as resillient if not more so on the road.
    Win the division, and from there if we get homefield, GREAT, if not we go to their house and make 'em cry........

  4. #24
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "slavinator" wrote:
    While I agree that we should really chase the homefield advantage in the playoffs, this years team seems to be as resillient if not more so on the road.
    Win the division, and from there if we get homefield, GREAT, if not we go to their house and make 'em cry........
    3-0 at home

    4-1 on the road.

    2 of the three home games were last second victories, a miracle throw vs. the 49ers, and a lucky missed field goal vs. the Ravens.

  5. #25
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "i_bleed_purple" wrote:
    "slavinator" wrote:
    While I agree that we should really chase the homefield advantage in the playoffs, this years team seems to be as resillient if not more so on the road.
    Win the division, and from there if we get homefield, GREAT, if not we go to their house and make 'em cry........
    3-0 at home

    4-1 on the road.

    2 of the three home games were last second victories, a miracle throw vs. the 49ers, and a lucky missed field goal vs. the Ravens.
    That is my point I think that it really doesn't matter as much to this team as it would to others who have come before them in Viking History.
    It would be nice to have but I am not as sold that they HAVE to have it.

  6. #26
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "slavinator" wrote:
    "i_bleed_purple" wrote:
    "slavinator" wrote:
    While I agree that we should really chase the homefield advantage in the playoffs, this years team seems to be as resillient if not more so on the road.
    Win the division, and from there if we get homefield, GREAT, if not we go to their house and make 'em cry........
    3-0 at home

    4-1 on the road.

    2 of the three home games were last second victories, a miracle throw vs. the 49ers, and a lucky missed field goal vs. the Ravens.
    That is my point I think that it really doesn't matter as much to this team as it would to others who have come before them in Viking History.
    It would be nice to have but I am not as sold that they HAVE to have it.
    We don't need to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs... I just want home field advantage throughout the playoffs...
    I've never been to an NFC Championship game.
    Zeus wrote:
    When are you going to realize that picking out the 20 bad throws this year and ignoring the 300 good ones does not make your point?

    =Z=

  7. #27
    Formo's Avatar
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "NodakPaul" wrote:
    "slavinator" wrote:
    "i_bleed_purple" wrote:
    "slavinator" wrote:
    While I agree that we should really chase the homefield advantage in the playoffs, this years team seems to be as resillient if not more so on the road.
    Win the division, and from there if we get homefield, GREAT, if not we go to their house and make 'em cry........
    3-0 at home

    4-1 on the road.

    2 of the three home games were last second victories, a miracle throw vs. the 49ers, and a lucky missed field goal vs. the Ravens.
    That is my point I think that it really doesn't matter as much to this team as it would to others who have come before them in Viking History.
    It would be nice to have but I am not as sold that they HAVE to have it.
    We don't need to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs... I just want home field advantage throughout the playoffs...
    I've never been to an NFC Championship game.
    Yes.
    Amen.

    And I love your sig, man!
    Vegans are eating the rainforests. =(

  8. #28
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "snowinapril" wrote:
    "midgensa" wrote:
    Not just the stats. If you watched the game ... you can definitely tell they are beatable.

    It will take a solid game, but I personally think we are the kind of team that can get them. They do NOT have super speedy receivers, which means if you can get pressure up front you can defend them well with a decent nickel package.

    They do not SCARE me. They are very solid though.
    When they thumped the Giants, I was a little worried.
    Then the Giants get thumped again by Philly.
    NO's game against the Phins made them look stronger for coming back and then turning it on than looking bad for being down to the Phins in the first place.

    The game last night against ATL [size=10pt]was one that shows they do make mistakes[/size].
    The INT by Brees was an awesome snag by the DB from ATL.
    The fumbles by the RBs, we can get those with our D.


    We just have to concentrate on not turning the ball over.
    Protect that ball!
    Have the ball last!
    Despite those mistakes they still put a thumbin on a up and coming good damn team.
    Throw in that they only really have the Patriots and the Falcons again, that might be able to beat them and you have a team that will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

    Just look at the way thier recievers matchup against us.
    Super speedy, no, big and able to go up and get it, yes.
    Multiple threats out of the backfield, TE that can block and catch the ball, QB who can get it to any place on the field.

    I for one don't think they are that easy of a matchup.
    Who said they were an easy match-up?

    We are DEFINITELY better against slower receivers than speedy ones, so that plays to our favor as much as possible. By the way ... they also play Dallas. While they will be favored in that game, that one is definitely as losable as the Falcons and Patriots games.

    And while Brees is solid ... he does have sloppy throws regularly ... if teams take advantage of it they can really turn it into good things. He also loses the ball on sacks a lot (of course both of these are way down this year).

    I don't see anyone saying they are an easy match up. But hell Marrdro, if you want to crown them, then crown their ass.

  9. #29
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "Prophet" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "snowinapril" wrote:
    "midgensa" wrote:
    Not just the stats. If you watched the game ... you can definitely tell they are beatable.

    It will take a solid game, but I personally think we are the kind of team that can get them. They do NOT have super speedy receivers, which means if you can get pressure up front you can defend them well with a decent nickel package.

    They do not SCARE me. They are very solid though.
    When they thumped the Giants, I was a little worried.
    Then the Giants get thumped again by Philly.
    NO's game against the Phins made them look stronger for coming back and then turning it on than looking bad for being down to the Phins in the first place.

    The game last night against ATL [size=10pt]was one that shows they do make mistakes[/size].
    The INT by Brees was an awesome snag by the DB from ATL.
    The fumbles by the RBs, we can get those with our D.


    We just have to concentrate on not turning the ball over.
    Protect that ball!
    Have the ball last!
    Despite those mistakes they still put a thumbin on a up and coming good gol 'darnit team.
    Throw in that they only really have the Patriots and the Falcons again, that might be able to beat them and you have a team that will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

    Just look at the way thier recievers matchup against us.
    Super speedy, no, big and able to go up and get it, yes.
    Multiple threats out of the backfield, TE that can block and catch the ball, QB who can get it to any place on the field.

    I for one don't think they are that easy of a matchup.
    Veterans at losing the big one, one playoff win since 1967.
    Passing for over 5000 yds and >30 TDs in a season and not making the playoffs.
    It would be an anomaly if the they went deep in the playoffs.
    They will begin to show their true colors soon, like in crucial games...games that determine home field advantage and the playoffs.
    I've followed them for too long to think differently.
    You might be right.
    For me, I very seldom try to equate past successes or failures when it comes to different regimes.
    Different regimes? They have been failing with practically this exact same regime for a couple of years now while everyone talked about how great they would be.

    They definitely have a different swagger to them than before. But I don't see what makes them so invincible.

  10. #30
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    Re: Falcons vs Saints 11-2-9

    "Zeus" wrote:
    "snowinapril" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "snowinapril" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    [quote author=snowinapril link=topic=54003.msg1013110#msg1013110 date=1257264394]
    [quote author=midgensa link=topic=54003.msg1013066#msg1013066 date=1257261807]
    Not just the stats. If you watched the game ... you can definitely tell they are beatable.

    It will take a solid game, but I personally think we are the kind of team that can get them. They do NOT have super speedy receivers, which means if you can get pressure up front you can defend them well with a decent nickel package.

    They do not SCARE me. They are very solid though.
    When they thumped the Giants, I was a little worried.
    Then the Giants get thumped again by Philly.
    NO's game against the Phins made them look stronger for coming back and then turning it on than looking bad for being down to the Phins in the first place.

    The game last night against ATL [size=10pt]was one that shows they do make mistakes[/size].
    The INT by Brees was an awesome snag by the DB from ATL.
    The fumbles by the RBs, we can get those with our D.


    We just have to concentrate on not turning the ball over.
    Protect that ball!
    Have the ball last!
    Despite those mistakes they still put a thumbin on a up and coming good gol 'darnit team.
    Throw in that they only really have the Patriots and the Falcons again, that might be able to beat them and you have a team that will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

    Just look at the way thier recievers matchup against us.
    Super speedy, no, big and able to go up and get it, yes.
    Multiple threats out of the backfield, TE that can block and catch the ball, QB who can get it to any place on the field.

    I for one don't think they are that easy of a matchup.
    Rodgers is another Qb that is suppose to be able to make every throw on the field.
    Granted the Saints have a better line and Brees gets rid of the ball faster.
    They did get 2 sacks on Brees with a FS and a DT.

    Turner can run on them, we need to also.
    I think the fact that they have to respect the pass will help.
    I just hope we get to play them in the playoffs.
    All good points, especially about Rodgers, but as you said, thier line is better.


    I for one, hope we don't meet them in the playoffs.

    The only reason I wouldn't want to face them is because that would probably mean we are playing them in the SuperDome.
    If they are out of the playoffs early, then we might have a chance to play the NFC Championship game in the HomerDome.


    8)
    Positive thinking!
    [/quote]

    At this point, I think it's still up in the air.
    Vikes are 7-1, Saints are 7-0.
    First tie-breaker for home-field advantage is conference record, and the Vikings are 5-0, while the Saints are 4-0.

    =Z=
    [/quote]

    Obviously I would love to be #1 seed w/ home field advantage, but if we are #2 & Saints are #1, the big advantage is that we are playing indoors in January.

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