Thread: ESPN's New QB Stat
08-16-2011, 06:49 PM #1
ESPN's New QB StatAccording to ESPN's own explanation, the stat is based on three primary concepts--Expected Points, Win Probability, and division of credit. As I understand it, QBR begins with a QB's Expected Points Added for each play in which he was directly involved, including both pass plays and runs. It modifies each play's EPA value according to a clutch factor, which is based on Win Probability (WP). Here, I use something similar known as Leverage Index (LI). LI is the ratio of the potential swing in WP for a play compared to the average play's potential swing in WP. For example, an LI of 3 means that a play is 3 times more critical to a game's outcome than the typical NFL play. (You can find any play's LI on the interactive WP graphs here by hovering your cursor over the graph. I still consider it a 'beta' stat because I haven't settled on a final, single definition of potential success and failure for every play.)
Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.
08-16-2011, 07:19 PM #2
Re: ESPN's New QB Stat
It would be better if they had all the historical stats for it. I wonder how McNabb compares to Favre for there careers and so forth.
08-16-2011, 07:23 PM #3
Re: ESPN's New QB StatOriginally Posted by "jmcdon00" #1104679
Not gonna go there on your question. :whistle:Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.
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