Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 45
  1. #11
    tastywaves's Avatar
    tastywaves is offline Ring of Fame
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    3,815

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "kevoncox" wrote:
    It was the right call. You have an offense that is rounding into top 3 form. You take the game into your own hands and gain 2 yards to seal the victory. You don't give Manning 2 mins to drive the field. He does that in his sleep. I hate the Pats but I think people like to see Beliechick fail. The guy made the right call. He punts and the colts win, everyone is saying " How could he not go for it on 4th and 2". Live like a Lion or lose like a lamb.
    Apparently it wasn't the right call.
    And I hardly doubt there would be a slew of people saying "How could he not go for it on 4th and 2", when he's probably the only coach in the league in that situation who would even dream of going for it.

    I appreciate that you like to see an aggressively called game, but that was more reckless than aggressive.

  2. #12
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,899

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "kevoncox" wrote:
    It was the right call. You have an offense that is rounding into top 3 form. You take the game into your own hands and gain 2 yards to seal the victory. You don't give Manning 2 mins to drive the field. He does that in his sleep. I hate the Pats but I think people like to see Beliechick fail. The guy made the right call. He punts and the colts win, everyone is saying " How could he not go for it on 4th and 2". Live like a Lion or lose like a lamb.
    Apparently it wasn't the right call.
    And I hardly doubt there would be a slew of people saying "How could he not go for it on 4th and 2", when he's probably the only coach in the league in that situation who would even dream of going for it.

    I appreciate that you like to see an aggressively called game, but that was more reckless than aggressive.
    I think you really have to look at what his defense did the previous series to completely understand the call.
    Sure the INT was a nice way to end the second one in that quarter but the other two were absolutely train wrecks.

    I would have opted for the Brady/Welker attempt as well.

    http://www.purplepride.org/forums/in...4d16cb1a36df4c
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  3. #13
    tastywaves's Avatar
    tastywaves is offline Ring of Fame
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    3,815

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "kevoncox" wrote:
    It was the right call. You have an offense that is rounding into top 3 form. You take the game into your own hands and gain 2 yards to seal the victory. You don't give Manning 2 mins to drive the field. He does that in his sleep. I hate the Pats but I think people like to see Beliechick fail. The guy made the right call. He punts and the colts win, everyone is saying " How could he not go for it on 4th and 2". Live like a Lion or lose like a lamb.
    Apparently it wasn't the right call.
    And I hardly doubt there would be a slew of people saying "How could he not go for it on 4th and 2", when he's probably the only coach in the league in that situation who would even dream of going for it.

    I appreciate that you like to see an aggressively called game, but that was more reckless than aggressive.
    I think you really have to look at what his defense did the previous series to completely understand the call.
    Sure the INT was a nice way to end the second one in that quarter but the other two were absolutely train wrecks.

    I would have opted for the Brady/Welker attempt as well.

    http://www.purplepride.org/forums/in...4d16cb1a36df4c
    There's no guarantee the Patriots win no matter what the call, but assuming Manning wins the game if you give the ball is not giving your own ball club much credit.
    Yes Manning just ate them up, doesn't mean he will again, he very well could have made another slip up ending the game.
    I say make them earn it and don't just give them the game.

  4. #14
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,899

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "kevoncox" wrote:
    It was the right call. You have an offense that is rounding into top 3 form. You take the game into your own hands and gain 2 yards to seal the victory. You don't give Manning 2 mins to drive the field. He does that in his sleep. I hate the Pats but I think people like to see Beliechick fail. The guy made the right call. He punts and the colts win, everyone is saying " How could he not go for it on 4th and 2". Live like a Lion or lose like a lamb.
    Apparently it wasn't the right call.
    And I hardly doubt there would be a slew of people saying "How could he not go for it on 4th and 2", when he's probably the only coach in the league in that situation who would even dream of going for it.

    I appreciate that you like to see an aggressively called game, but that was more reckless than aggressive.
    I think you really have to look at what his defense did the previous series to completely understand the call.
    Sure the INT was a nice way to end the second one in that quarter but the other two were absolutely train wrecks.

    I would have opted for the Brady/Welker attempt as well.

    http://www.purplepride.org/forums/in...4d16cb1a36df4c
    There's no guarantee the Patriots win no matter what the call, but assuming Manning wins the game if you give the ball is not giving your own ball club much credit.
    Yes Manning just ate them up, doesn't mean he will again, he very well could have made another slip up ending the game.
    I say make them earn it and don't just give them the game.
    I agree with you to a point.
    In hindsight he might rethink it.
    Again, its Peyton, basically has been handing your defense its butt for whole quarter. You have Tom Terrific and Wes "the greatest slot reciever" Welker.

    Again, I go for it.

    In the end, you are still gonna win your division.
    A risked loss here really doesn't hurt anything, other than of course, the message you sent to your D.
    My guess they were so gassed they probably thanked him later.
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  5. #15
    VikingMike's Avatar
    VikingMike is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    5,820

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "kevoncox" wrote:
    It was the right call. You have an offense that is rounding into top 3 form. You take the game into your own hands and gain 2 yards to seal the victory. You don't give Manning 2 mins to drive the field. He does that in his sleep. I hate the Pats but I think people like to see Beliechick fail. The guy made the right call. He punts and the colts win, everyone is saying " How could he not go for it on 4th and 2". Live like a Lion or lose like a lamb.
    Apparently it wasn't the right call.
    And I hardly doubt there would be a slew of people saying "How could he not go for it on 4th and 2", when he's probably the only coach in the league in that situation who would even dream of going for it.

    I appreciate that you like to see an aggressively called game, but that was more reckless than aggressive.
    I think you really have to look at what his defense did the previous series to completely understand the call.
    Sure the INT was a nice way to end the second one in that quarter but the other two were absolutely train wrecks.

    I would have opted for the Brady/Welker attempt as well.

    http://www.purplepride.org/forums/in...4d16cb1a36df4c
    There's no guarantee the Patriots win no matter what the call, but assuming Manning wins the game if you give the ball is not giving your own ball club much credit.
    Yes Manning just ate them up, doesn't mean he will again, he very well could have made another slip up ending the game.
    I say make them earn it and don't just give them the game.
    I agree with you to a point.
    In hindsight he might rethink it.
    Again, its Peyton, basically has been handing your defense its butt for whole quarter. You have Tom Terrific and Wes "the greatest slot reciever" Welker.

    Again, I go for it.

    In the end, you are still gonna win your division.
    A risked loss here really doesn't hurt anything, other than of course, the message you sent to your D.
    My guess they were so gassed they probably thanked him later.

    I love the call, and I also love the outcome. But to me, it looked like Faulk had the first down with his forward progress (assuming that little yellow line is accurate). Belicheat goes on 4th down more than any other coach, and why not? His success rate on 4th and 2 or less is 76.4% (according to Schefter)...not too shabby. He's got a few pretty good weapons on offense.
    Any man who afflicts the human race with ideas must be prepared to see them misunderstood. - H.L. Mencken

    Come from the land of the ice and snow...

  6. #16
    Zeus's Avatar
    Zeus is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Minnesota.
    Posts
    23,937

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ick/index.html

    Why Belichick made right decision

    Posted: Monday November 16, 2009 12:21PM; Updated: Monday November 16, 2009 12:38PM
    Joe Posnanski
    But ... Belichick went for it. And here's the reason: He doesn't care about any of that stuff. He doesn't care about sentiment or history or what every other coach would do. He doesn't care about anything at all except winning the game. The best explanation I've read of the decision so far this morning comes from Brian Burke in the New York Times Fifth Down Blog. Burke was a Navy pilot, and now he writes the Advanced NFL Stats blog.

    His explanation is this: A team picks up 4th and 2 about 60 percent of the time -- and we all know that a fourth down conversion in this case means certain victory. On the flip side: A team would score a game-winning touchdown from the 30 about 53 percent of the time. This leads to this formula -- the first part is the 60 percent multiplied by 1 (1 signifying the certain victory if the play is converted). The second part is 40 percent multiplied by the chance of winning the game if the 4th down play fails:

    (.60 *1) + (.40*(1-.53)) = 78.8% chance of winning.

    There you go. Burke then estimates the chance of winning if Belichick punts -- that is the chance of a team going 66 yards for a touchdown in the final two minutes. He says, historically, teams get that about 30 percent of the time. So a punt gives the Patriots a 70 percent chance of winning.

    And there you go -- 78.8 percent chance of winning vs. a 70 percent chance if you punt. It really is clear cut. I don't know if Belichick plays with such percentages in his mind, but instinctively he knew his team's best chance to win was to go for it.
    =Z=

    Thanks to Josdin for the awesome sig!

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    1,206

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "Zeus" wrote:
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ick/index.html

    Why Belichick made right decision

    Posted: Monday November 16, 2009 12:21PM; Updated: Monday November 16, 2009 12:38PM
    Joe Posnanski
    And there you go -- 78.8 percent chance of winning vs. a 70 percent chance if you punt.
    =Z=
    Sweet.
    That's pretty much exactly what I'm saying, with some better numbers and explanation and a few small differences.

    And that's why I don't buy the 'sending a bad message to your defense,' or 'not making the Colts earn it.'

    Because it was the call that gave the Pats the best chance to win.

    EDIT: Just saw this interesting little tool: Belichick Odds Calculator
    When the age of the Vikings came to a close, they must have sensed it. Probably, they gathered together one evening, slapped each other on the back and said, "Hey, good job." - Jack Handey [Deep Thoughts]

  8. #18
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
    i_bleed_purple is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Canadialand
    Posts
    16,776
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "VikingMike" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    [quote author=kevoncox link=topic=54199.msg1017649#msg1017649 date=1258395786]
    It was the right call. You have an offense that is rounding into top 3 form. You take the game into your own hands and gain 2 yards to seal the victory. You don't give Manning 2 mins to drive the field. He does that in his sleep. I hate the Pats but I think people like to see Beliechick fail. The guy made the right call. He punts and the colts win, everyone is saying " How could he not go for it on 4th and 2". Live like a Lion or lose like a lamb.
    Apparently it wasn't the right call.
    And I hardly doubt there would be a slew of people saying "How could he not go for it on 4th and 2", when he's probably the only coach in the league in that situation who would even dream of going for it.

    I appreciate that you like to see an aggressively called game, but that was more reckless than aggressive.
    I think you really have to look at what his defense did the previous series to completely understand the call.
    Sure the INT was a nice way to end the second one in that quarter but the other two were absolutely train wrecks.

    I would have opted for the Brady/Welker attempt as well.

    http://www.purplepride.org/forums/in...4d16cb1a36df4c
    There's no guarantee the Patriots win no matter what the call, but assuming Manning wins the game if you give the ball is not giving your own ball club much credit.
    Yes Manning just ate them up, doesn't mean he will again, he very well could have made another slip up ending the game.
    I say make them earn it and don't just give them the game.
    I agree with you to a point.
    In hindsight he might rethink it.
    Again, its Peyton, basically has been handing your defense its butt for whole quarter. You have Tom Terrific and Wes "the greatest slot reciever" Welker.

    Again, I go for it.

    In the end, you are still gonna win your division.
    A risked loss here really doesn't hurt anything, other than of course, the message you sent to your D.
    My guess they were so gassed they probably thanked him later.

    I love the call, and I also love the outcome. But to me, it looked like Faulk had the first down with his forward progress
    [/quote]

    He didn't.
    The reason is, he bobbled the ball.
    At first I thought it was an awful spot by the refs, but when I saw the replay, Faulk bobbled the ball, and didn't catch it until he was back behind the first down line.
    The spot was accurate IMO.
    Had Faulk not bobbled the ball, Bellicheck would be looking like a genieus now instead of an idiot.

  9. #19
    gregair13's Avatar
    gregair13 is offline Jersey Retired
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Location
    Edmonton, AB
    Posts
    14,576

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    I think it is the right cal not because of these dumb percentages and crap but because if you get the first down, you win the game. When the best player in the game is ready to come onto the field, and you know he is going to score no matter where he gets the ball from, of course you have to go for it. I completed agree with the call.
    We're bringing purple back.

  10. #20
    Marrdro's Avatar
    Marrdro is offline Beware My Spreadsheet, Bitches!
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    43,899

    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "i_bleed_purple" wrote:
    He didn't.
    The reason is, he bobbled the ball.
    At first I thought it was an awful spot by the refs, but when I saw the replay, Faulk bobbled the ball, and didn't catch it until he was back behind the first down line.
    The spot was accurate IMO.
    Had Faulk not bobbled the ball, Bellicheck would be looking like a genieus now instead of an idiot.
    Excellent post my friend.......I wonder how many Pats fans are saying the refs screwed them.
    ;D
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Belichick Clones
    By snowinapril in forum General NFL Discussion
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-03-2009, 05:08 PM
  2. Childress Gives Belichick a Wedgie
    By Prophet in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 48
    Last Post: 09-12-2007, 05:10 AM
  3. 12 Yrs Later, Belichick Gets K. Brady
    By Prophet in forum General NFL Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-03-2007, 06:46 PM
  4. Phantom Holding call and BONEHEAD CALL
    By hovan in forum Vikings Fan Forum
    Replies: 57
    Last Post: 11-22-2005, 10:47 PM
  5. Bill Belichick
    By ultravikingfan in forum General NFL Discussion
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: 02-07-2005, 10:01 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •