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  1. #1
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    Belichick 4th Down Call

    So if anyone missed it, Belichick is being savaged for going for it on 4th and 2 from the Pats 28 with 2:08 to go and a 6-point lead (see here, here, here, or here).

    I actually think it was a pretty good call, despite poor use of timeouts.

    Look at the possible outcomes from each play call.
    If the Pats punt it away, then the expected result is that the Colts have the ball somewhere around their own 30.
    If the Pats go for it, then they either make it and are able to essentially run the clock to nothing, or they give it up with 2 minutes left around their own 30.

    What are the chances that the Colts score a TD if they have to go 70 yards in 2 minutes with 1 timeout?
    I don't know for sure.
    Peter King suggested 35%.
    That's probably fair.
    I think you're pretty comfortable if you're a Colts fan at that point and you've watched your team come back in the second half.
    Time really isn't a big issue for a team with Peyton Manning, a team that runs the no huddle about every play.

    What are the chances the Patriots succeed?
    I think I saw a stat that showed the Pats were 60-65% in similar 2-yard to go situations under Brady.
    Consider that most of that time wasn't spent with Moss and Welker in the offense, and I can understand Belichick's confidence.

    So if you believe those percentages, right there it's a pretty even call.
    About a 65% chance the Pats win if they go for it, about a 65% chance they win if they punt it.

    But we also have to take into account the fact that the Colts still have to score even from the Patriots' 30, and then the Pats could get the ball back.

    What are the chances that the Colts score from 30 yards out?
    Pretty good.
    More than 35%.
    Probably more than 50%.
    But it's not a gimme.
    I don't know what the stat is for college teams needing a TD in overtime, but that's a comparable situation.
    Those teams just don't have Peyton Manning.

    But if they do score, how much time is left on the clock?
    Driving 70 yards it's likely that there is almost no time left if the Colts score.
    If they score from the 30, then there is a good chance that significant time (say, 1 minute) remains.
    From the 30 the Colts were smart enough to know they couldn't hurry too much, but that works against the number of plays they have to try and get it in the end zone so that they can't just run it out either.


    It worked out that getting the 1st and goal really killed the Pats time-wise.


    I kept thinking when they tackled Addai at the 1, "should have let him score."
    The Pats would have had about 1:15 left to drive for a field goal.
    What are the chances of that?
    I'm not sure, but much better than a TD score.
    Maybe 50%?

    So the basic point is that the percentages were pretty close, and I think might have favored the decision to go for it.
    At the very least it wasn't a terrible call as most people will suggest.


    I like it, even if it didn't work.

    Thoughts?
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  2. #2
    i_bleed_purple's Avatar
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    not sure what I think about the call

    on one hand, if you miss, you give them the ball at the 35, which is damn good field position especially for Manning.

    On the other hand, They haven't been able to stop manning at all in the fourth quarter yet, so punting them the ball might not help either.


    If they convert, they win the game, simple as that, if they don't, they can still lose.
    I'd say there are worse decisions to make out there.
    Would I have gone for it?
    Probably not, but I'm not going to crucify him for that.

  3. #3
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    Good stuff my friend.


    One of the things the announcer said that kindof made sense to me.
    Bellicheat obvioulsy believed the Colts wouldn't have a problem moving down the field based on what they did the previous drive.

    You have Brady and Welker (who almost go it the previous play), why not go for it.
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  4. #4
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    I heard about it afterwards on NBC. I dosed off for a bit, getting a well deserved and needed nap. I did not want to go out delivering papers, something bad could have happened.

    As for the play, i am an optimist, but i think it would have been a lot tougher for the colts to go the distance, had the pats punted. Based on time, score and circumstances, that's what i would have done.
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  5. #5
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    Personally, I just love to see the guy getting crucified, whether its justified or not.

    I think he made the wrong decision, not just because it didn't work.
    The Patriots under Belichek have made a living at going for it on 4th down and as Overlord mentions, they have a good track record.
    However, the Colts were out of timeouts and even with Peyton Manning (who threw 2 picks that day), the chances of marching 70 yards vs 35 yards in less than 2 minutes is asking a lot, I have to show confidence in my defense.
    To me, Belichek is basically saying he doesn't think his defense can stop Manning so the only way to win is to get the first down and run out the clock.
    I know he doesn't give a shit what people think including his players, but that is a pretty heavy hit.

    The same thought process that says the Colts offense was running well at then end can be turned to say they were due for one mishap...INT, fumble, sack.
    Just giving up to Peyton and the Colts offense is a sign of weakness to me.


  6. #6
    molineviking is offline Asst. Coach
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call




    It should be mentioned that NE pretty much had this game, Led most of it, dominated time of poss. Indys D is nothing to fear, my point is they aren't unbeatable (Same with the Saints as far as I'm concerned) So I will expect the geniuses/idiots to say the Vikings are in the same league with both-But won't because they're undefeated and we aren't.
    Even if the Vikings lose, I can still find happiness in Bears, and Packer losses.

  7. #7
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "tastywaves" wrote:
    [size=10pt]Personally, I just love to see the guy getting crucified, whether its justified or not.[/size]

    I think he made the wrong decision, not just because it didn't work.
    The Patriots under Belichek have made a living at going for it on 4th down and as Overlord mentions, they have a good track record.
    However, the Colts were out of timeouts and even with Peyton Manning (who threw 2 picks that day), the chances of marching 70 yards vs 35 yards in less than 2 minutes is asking a lot, I have to show confidence in my defense.
    To me, Belichek is basically saying he doesn't think his defense can stop Manning so the only way to win is to get the first down and run out the clock.
    I know he doesn't give a pooh what people think including his players, but that is a pretty heavy hit.

    The same thought process that says the Colts offense was running well at then end can be turned to say they were due for one mishap...INT, fumble, sack.
    Just giving up to Peyton and the Colts offense is a sign of weakness to me.

    LOL, I hear ya.
    I am kindof torn on him.
    Probably a top 10 all time coach.
    Never would he supplant Coach Joe though.......

    I wonder, as I type this, how many would be happy if he replaced the Chiller?
    : ;D
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

  8. #8
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    [size=10pt]Personally, I just love to see the guy getting crucified, whether its justified or not.[/size]

    I think he made the wrong decision, not just because it didn't work.
    The Patriots under Belichek have made a living at going for it on 4th down and as Overlord mentions, they have a good track record.
    However, the Colts were out of timeouts and even with Peyton Manning (who threw 2 picks that day), the chances of marching 70 yards vs 35 yards in less than 2 minutes is asking a lot, I have to show confidence in my defense.
    To me, Belichek is basically saying he doesn't think his defense can stop Manning so the only way to win is to get the first down and run out the clock.
    I know he doesn't give a pooh what people think including his players, but that is a pretty heavy hit.

    The same thought process that says the Colts offense was running well at then end can be turned to say they were due for one mishap...INT, fumble, sack.
    Just giving up to Peyton and the Colts offense is a sign of weakness to me.

    LOL, I hear ya.
    I am kindof torn on him.
    Probably a top 10 all time coach.
    Never would he supplant Coach Joe though.......

    I wonder, as I type this, how many would be happy if he replaced the Chiller?

    : ;D
    I'll let you know if/when it happens, for now just let me hate on him.

  9. #9
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    It was the right call. You have an offense that is rounding into top 3 form. You take the game into your own hands and gain 2 yards to seal the victory. You don't give Manning 2 mins to drive the field. He does that in his sleep. I hate the Pats but I think people like to see Beliechick fail. The guy made the right call. He punts and the colts win, everyone is saying " How could he not go for it on 4th and 2". Live like a Lion or lose like a lamb.

  10. #10
    Marrdro's Avatar
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    Re: Belichick 4th Down Call

    "tastywaves" wrote:
    "Marrdro" wrote:
    "tastywaves" wrote:
    [size=10pt]Personally, I just love to see the guy getting crucified, whether its justified or not.[/size]

    I think he made the wrong decision, not just because it didn't work.
    The Patriots under Belichek have made a living at going for it on 4th down and as Overlord mentions, they have a good track record.
    However, the Colts were out of timeouts and even with Peyton Manning (who threw 2 picks that day), the chances of marching 70 yards vs 35 yards in less than 2 minutes is asking a lot, I have to show confidence in my defense.
    To me, Belichek is basically saying he doesn't think his defense can stop Manning so the only way to win is to get the first down and run out the clock.
    I know he doesn't give a pooh what people think including his players, but that is a pretty heavy hit.

    The same thought process that says the Colts offense was running well at then end can be turned to say they were due for one mishap...INT, fumble, sack.
    Just giving up to Peyton and the Colts offense is a sign of weakness to me.

    LOL, I hear ya.
    I am kindof torn on him.
    Probably a top 10 all time coach.
    Never would he supplant Coach Joe though.......

    I wonder, as I type this, how many would be happy if he replaced the Chiller?

    : ;D
    I'll let you know if/when it happens, for now just let me hate on him.
    LOL, roger that.
    ;D
    Many many thanks to my talented friend Jos for the new Sig.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v343/josdin00/Vikings/Marrdro_sig.jpg

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